The October update finds the El Niño summer-power thesis still intact: the Jul–Aug 2027 PJM strip is now 24.5% above entry, summer power has resisted a sharp decline in natural gas, and July appears largely priced for a post-super-El Niño outcome. The remaining opportunity is concentrated in August, while cheaper gas has become the primary risk to the trade.

CEUPWRT declined 3.23% in October, giving back part of September’s gain as warm weather and a strong El Niño winter outlook pressured near-term forwards. Despite the monthly decline, PJM demand remains materially above prior years and the index is still up 11.17% year to date.

Power prices eased in October as warm weather and a mild El Niño winter outlook pulled premium out of the near-term power curve.

The 1-month power index fell 12.9% in October, reversing much of its 2026 gain, while 15 of the 20 backtested strategies finished the month positive. Short-biased rules performed especially well, and the leading strategies remained unchanged heading into November.

Why a 12-month strip of U.S. electricity futures may be the most direct, least crowded way to gain exposure to AI and data-center growth as power demand rises faster than the market has priced.

Electricity and natural gas prices are separating across both spot and futures markets as power develops increasingly independent return drivers.

Summer 2027 power began to reprice higher as PJM tightened, demand grew, and the market moved closer to pricing the post–El Niño heat thesis.

The 1-month power index rose 15.5% in September, its strongest monthly gain since January, while the 20-trade scorecard remained largely unchanged.

Electricity prices jumped as late-season heat met plant maintenance, lifting ICEUPWRT about 9.9% for the month while broad commodities were roughly flat.

ICEUPWRT gained 9.90% in September, its best month since November 2022, led by PJM-W and MISO as late-season heat collided with autumn maintenance.

ICEUPWRT (1.67)% total return — a down month that cut against the complex, as broad commodities (BCOM +7.39%) and energy (BCOMEN +5.55%) rallied.

The grid got 6.5 times more sensitive to heat, and power has stopped following gas. The curve has noticed neither.