ICEUPWRT · ICE U.S. Electricity Futures Index
Monthly Update — Plain-Language Summary As of October 31, 2026
Power prices eased in October. A warm month across the northern U.S. and a forecast for a mild, El Niño winter took some of the “winter premium” out of electricity prices for the coming months, and the ICEUPWRT index — a measure of power prices across six regional markets — fell about 3.2% for the month, giving back part of September’s 9.9% gain; it is still up about 11% this year. Oil prices jumped on Middle East supply worries, but U.S. natural gas — the fuel that sets most power prices — got cheaper, and power followed gas. The bigger picture is unchanged: electricity is a growing, demand-driven market, powered by data centers and AI.
▪ The index fell about 3.2% in October and is up about 11% so far this year; broad commodity markets were flat for the month.
▪ Maintenance season squeezed the grid again: with many power plants offline for autumn repairs, a mid-October warm spell pushed the largest U.S. grid into a maximum-generation alert and sent real-time prices above $1,700/MWh for a few hours.
▪ Underneath the weather, demand keeps growing — adjusted for temperature, the PJM (mid-Atlantic/Midwest) market used about 8% more power this October than three years ago.
▪ The price of power for the year ahead slipped about 4% this month — this winter’s months fell, while next summer held near record highs.
Even after adjusting for weather, power demand in the PJM region keeps rising — and day-ahead prices have risen with it.
In the news this month
▪ Grids ran short on spare power, again — the largest U.S. grid operator issued a maximum-generation alert on October 13 and received a federal emergency order allowing it to ask data centers to switch to backup generators.
▪ Regulators sent a data-center plan back — federal regulators approved a registry of large new power users but rejected the core of the grid operator’s plan for connecting them, leaving states to decide who is cut first in an emergency.
▪ Oil up, natural gas down — oil rose about 15% on Middle East supply worries, but U.S. natural gas fell to a six-month low, and power prices followed gas lower.
ICEUPWRT is calculated and published by ICE Data Indices, LLC. Index returns do not reflect any fund, fees, or expenses; one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Weather data © Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0. For discussion only — not investment advice. Disclosure to be finalized with compliance.
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What is the ICEUPWRT index?
The ICEUPWRT tracks the price of electricity traded for future delivery across six major U.S. regional power markets. It is a real, published index calculated by ICE Data Indices — not a hypothetical or back-tested model. Because electricity cannot be easily stored and demand is now growing quickly, power prices behave differently from most commodities, which is what makes the index a distinct building block for a portfolio.
Why it matters
American electricity demand is growing for the first time in a generation — led by data centers and artificial intelligence — while new supply is slow and expensive to build. Generating equipment is scarce and costs more, and projects face labor shortages and long delays. That combination, rising demand meeting slow-to-grow supply, tends to support power prices over time, and it has historically shown little relationship to broad commodities like oil and metals — the reason power can help diversify a portfolio.
A real track record since 2018
Since January 2018 the index has returned roughly 130% — about a 10% annual pace — through the ups and downs of the power market.
ICEUPWRT is calculated and published by ICE Data Indices, LLC. Index returns do not reflect any fund, fees, or expenses; one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Weather data © Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0. For discussion only — not investment advice. Disclosure to be finalized with compliance.
CNIC Funds LLC · Confidential
